Solana's $11B TVL is not too far from ATH, while active user numbers have been down ever since the peak of meme and agent season.
So while protocols like Jupiter, Kamino, Jito, Sanctum, Raydium, Marinade, Drift, Meteora or Orca have been able to sustain TVL, a lot of the daily activity has moved elsewhere.
This makes sense as perp season increasingly overtook gambling on memes and low cap pumpfun tokens.
While Solana is home to a bunch noteable perp DEXes (incl Jupiter, Drift, Phoenix), these systems remain limited by the constraints of the L1's execution environment.
The better UX and performance of purpose-built appchains like Hyperliquid, @Lighter_xyz or @paradex, in combination with aggressive marketing and incentive programs from dozens of players in the vertical, has definitely taken a toll on the number of traders on Solana L1.
The integration of Hyperliquid perps into Phantom wallet (Solana's largest ecosystem wallet) might have further accelerated this shift, but (as the numbers do too) also proves that there is a gap here currently in the Solana ecosystem. A gap that players like @bulletxyz_, @pacifica_fi or @bulktrade are trying to fill, thereby potentially bringing back trading activity to Solana.
Yet, it likely doesn't all just come down to the perp wars, and I think the increasing competition on the retail front by @base and BNB Chain, with the latter having been quite aggressive on both perps (Aster) and memes in recent months, surely also having had an impact with a lot of meme activity that @solana heavily dominated at times, moving over to BNB Chain or partially Base.
Finally, I think aside gambling on perps gambling on prediction markets was another replacement of meme activity. So while some moved from the Solana trenches to HL, others probably moved to @Polymarket, @Kalshi, etc. Because while Solana does house some prediction market platforms, they lack major traction. Another gap in the ecosystem, and one that @meleemarkets aims to fill.
All in all, and also looking at the various fundamental drivers (Firedancer client, Alpenglow consensus upgrade, network extensions maturing, etc), I'm quite optimistic about the Solana trajectory in the coming months.
Think as a result, we'll also see the user numbers rebound again as TVL continues to grow.


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