17 小时前
***MSTR tweet*** Most people still don't understand where Saylor gets his money from when he's buying $BTC He's not sitting on a pile of cash that he's "deploying strategically". When he's buying $BTC, it means that he just sold something else. This thing he's selling can either be : - The common stock $MSTR => ie he issues new shares and immediately sells them onto the market ("ATM" = at-the-market offering) - Or any of his 4 preferred shares (STRF, STRC, STRK, STRD) => same mechanism, he issues new shares and sells them in the market Once again, this means that he is NOT trying to time the BTCUSD pair. The only thing he is doing is selling these instruments when it seems "accretive" to him, and in the capacity that the market/demand will ALLOW him to execute. So, here are his constraints for the 2 different types of instruments : - $MSTR => when he's selling MSTR to buy BTC, he is not timing the BTC/USD pair but the MSTR/BTC pair. He wants to sell MSTR when the mNAV premium is "high", and he will use this lever much less when the mNAV premium is "low". As long as the mNAV is above 1, it's technically accretive (in terms of BTC per share) to sell MSTR to buy BTC, but it's less and less accretive the closer to 1 it gets. Right now the mNAV premium (fully diluted) is around 1.3x-1.4x so he doesn't use this lever too much. - Preferred shares => these can be considered roughly as debt instruments. He will sell them when he considers that the borrowing costs of that debt are low. The higher the price of these preferred shares is, the lower the borrowing costs. If $STRK goes to $130, he will definitely issue and sell a lot of STRK shares, but at $89, such as right now, it's less interesting so he won't raise a lot with that. The second constraint on the prefs is that they have MUCH less daily trading volume and liquidity than the common stock MSTR, so even if their price was "high" (ie cheap debt), Saylor would still be constrained in terms of size that he can raise weekly. Using the ATM on the common stock $MSTR allows him to raise way more cash to buy $BTC than using the ATM on the prefs, so each week he does NOT use the ATM on MSTR is a week where he will buy only a very small amount of BTC. He has completely stopped selling MSTR shares over the past 3 weeks, which is why his last 3 purchases have been so small. He COULD easily raise $500M in a week through selling MSTR to buy more BTC, but it would put pressure on the MSTR/BTC ratio, and he doesn't want to do that when the mNAV is this "low". This is why his main effort at the moment is trying to raise awareness around his $STRC preferred stock : it is basically a (roughly) 10% APR stablecoin "soft-pegged" at $100, with monthly payments. The advantage it has over the other preferred stocks is that it is EASIER to grasp and it doesn't have the duration risk. STRK, STRF and STRD can have a lot of volatility and go from $85 to $130 back to $90 again. But people that just want "safe yield" don't want this level of volatility, so a product like STRC that remains around $100 is much more attractive. That's what we can see on the daily trading volumes, as the average volume on STRC is roughly equal to the cumulative volume on all of the 3 other prefs together. Right now, $STRC is still struggling to get "pegged" to $100, but the chart is looking constructive. Once it reaches $100, Saylor will be able to issue more of it, and buy $BTC with the proceeds. It's a process that will take time, and he won't immediately be able to raise $300M+ per week with that, but I am quite confident that the awareness and the popularity of these preferred shares will keep growing over time, which will allow Saylor to ignite the MSTR flywheel again.
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