Tends to climb up to $14.50 or $15 and then drop to $13, whenever it does I add a little more. Think BVPS will be $14.74, last quarter was pretty strong at 42 cents, looking for 42-44 cents this quarter. Highly rate sensitive deposit base, but the September cut was late in the quarter, not sure if they front ran it. Still, with the prospect of 2 further cuts this year and 6% loan growth, think OP is well on its way to 50 cents a quarter by the beginning of next year ($2.00 run rate). Would put it at 6.75x earnings, pretty attractive multiple for a bank with good capital management and aligned insiders. Still have some lingering orders 20 to 30 cents lower, but mainly waiting for earnings. They have a few non performing SBA loans which might add some noise to the quarter? but given where it is trading at I think it's just too cheap. Year end book value is likely 15+, and I think they deserve to trade somewhat close to that.
Kinda a weird post, but $OPBK will be a top 3 bank in 2026. Doesn't get much love or attention, but the bank is run competently and capital management is excellent. They have a few tailwinds over the next 4 quarters: - Above industry deposit / lending growth - Rate cuts providing deposit relief - Stabilization of the CRE Market on the West Coast OPBK was running around 1.80 - 1.90 in EPS before the 2022 - 2024 rise in deposit yields. Last quarter, they just put up $0.42, and I believe they are on track to finish the year around $0.45, which would be a $1.80 run rate, around 7.4x earnings where it is trading now. While they have substantial non interest bearing deposits, about 75% of the deposit base is money market / cds at 4.2%. This gives them substantial room for improvement once rates begin heading down. Their net interest margin has already expanded from 2.96% last year to 3.23%, and I think have the right footing for further expansion. Their asset quality remains strong, non-performing loans are improving and I think their credit provision is more than sufficient to cover any difficulties. Of course, with banks your entry point is crucial. You don't want to get involved at an unfavorable price. Although I think $OPBK could make $2 a share by 2026, I still want to get it at a discount. With Tangible Book Value of $14.36 and no unrealized bond losses to adjust for, I am pretty happy buying 1,000 - 2,000 shares a day whenever it dips below $13, which represents a 10% discount to Tangible Book. The company itself seems to like buying back shares in the 10's - 11's, so the lower in the 12s we go, the more I add. A lot of people think banks are a lost cause, but over the past 10 years OPBK has outperformed KRE by nearly 5% a year (10.4% vs 5.8%). I think it is an outperformer that is deserving of additional attention. It dipped to $12.50 last week, so I added another 6,000 shares. I think in 2026 when rate cuts hopefully begin (not sure we get 3 this year), earnings will begin to march on towards $2, and the stock will either re-rate to book value, or more optimistically, a premium to book value. Right now it's stand alone pretty decent at 8x earnings, and if we get the jet fuel of rate cuts (which of course also helps on the credit side), I think the story will begin to build.
If I had a smaller position I'd probably add low 13s and flip back at 15 each time this happens, but I'm a believer in them long term
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