My thoughts about $MEGA... Sale MegaETH’s public sale allocates 5% of supply via an English auction on Sonar. Floor FDV: $1M, cap: $999M. Yet Hyperliquid futures imply ~$5B FDV, signaling heavy speculative demand. Polymarket shows 71% odds with over $1.8B in committed capital. Valuation Polymarket odds show an 80% chance of FDV >$2B post-launch, after one day. Premarket pricing near $0.44 per $MEGA suggests up to 4× upside from auction levels, making the sale look attractive. This talks for the bull case. Another key factor will be the lock-up period and how many investors choose it. A higher lock-up ratio could prevent the chart from dropping quickly, as was the case with $XPL. Other Similar Launches Reference: $XPL’s sale started at a $500M FDV, later peaked near $4.5B, but retraced sharply after weak post-launch traction and liquidity issues. The project was overhyped, which led to a poor-looking chart, even though its project fundamentals weren’t bad. This could result in the bear case. (This case here ignores the initial spike after lunch.) Conclusion If MegaETH delivers on mainnet and usage, an FDV of $2–5B is achievable. Failure to sustain adoption and an overly high starting valuation could bring it below $1B, mirroring $XPL’s correction. I’d still try to get an allocation, but as others mentioned, closing other positions for this sale could mean high opportunity costs—especially without allocation boosts like network usage or a Fluffle. The one-year lock-up period doesn’t seem like a valuable option in my opinion, given the risk of an initial dump.